El cambio geopolítico global en la era de la Posguerra Fría

Abstract

Evolution of the world geopolitical system follows organismic developmental principles. The system is complex. It is characterized by a flexibly hierarchical, specialized and integrated spatial structure. Global imbalance is a function of changes among and between geostrategic realms and their geopolitical regions. The imbalance especially reflects differences in entropic levels of major national states, particularly first- and second order powers. As power becomes more diffused across the evolving world system, the system is better equipped to cope with the shock of change. The evolution of the system depends upon such change. An evolving system is reflected in the multiplication of its parts. The system becomes more integrated as these parts become more specialized. A novel example of specialization is the Gateway region. Eastern Europe is emerging as the Gateway that will link the Maritime and Continental Geostrategic realms. Ultimately the Middle Eastern Shatterbelt may also acquire Gateway status. In addition, in the coming decades, nearly thirty Gateway states are likely to emerge. These are small exchange states with qualified sovereignty that will spin off from existing national entities to help link the world system. Such gateways serve the dynamic system as structures of accommodation. American foreign policy needs to adapt to current geopolitical realities. The global system is increasingly becoming a seamless web whose salient characteristic is dynamic equilibrium, not rigidly imposed order. United States leadership cannot impose a Pax Americana on the global system. It can, however, further its development through a carefully constructed series of policy moves that will strengthen global interdependence through partnerships of interest.