The Influence of Pre-Election Polls on Undecided and Decided Voters During Electoral Campaigns in Spain
Abstract
Pre-election polls constitute a key tool for citizens to understand the electoral landscape and assess which party or candidate has the highest chances in each election. This article examines whether these surveys have a differential impact on undecided voters compared to those who have already made their choice. Using a quantitative methodology, the study analyzes the influence of awareness with polling data in two general elections held in Spain, based on post-election surveys conducted by the CIS in April and November 2019. The findings suggest that the effects vary depending on the opinion climate and the context of party competition during the electoral campaign. Overall, while polls tend to reinforce the decisions of voters who have already made up their minds, for undecided voters, they provide additional information that may help them decide their vote at the last moment.
Downloads
Article download
Crossmark
License
In order to support the global exchange of knowledge, the journal Política y Sociedad is allowing unrestricted access to its content as from its publication in this electronic edition, and as such it is an open-access journal. The originals published in this journal are the property of the Complutense University of Madrid and any reproduction thereof in full or in part must cite the source. All content is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 use and distribution licence (CC BY 4.0). This circumstance must be expressly stated in these terms where necessary. You can view the summary and the complete legal text of the licence.
