Universal Basic Income based on evidence

Abstract

The different pilot projects of Universal Basic Income (UBI) that have been implemented all over the world have raised an intense interest in Europe, both for the data they gathered and for their theoretical implications. This article analyzes the empirical evidence and the different models of experimentation that have been at work in UBI policies, with the aim to measure to what extent they are capable of offering a certain amount of predictability on UBI social impact. In order to do it, the intention, design and results obtained from different pilot projects and experimental models over time and in different countries are thouroughly analysed. In broad terms, we find that none of these experiments is capable to furnish evidence that would make it possible to anticipate the joint impact of all the variables involved in the development of UBI in the long-term and in specific contexts. Nevertheless, this same evidence can also be used to unload the burden of proof to the detractors of UBI, as empirical analysis does not show any sure negative effects, either. In conclusion, it can be stated that the heterogeneity of effects brought forward by the implementation of UBI should be viewed as an unavoidable reference in order to reduce the uncertainty about its impact, and the effort should be made to incorporate new relevant variables into the analysis or to improve the design of its implementation.