Seasonal prediction of the intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon precipitation

  • Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues Institut Català de Ciències del Clima
  • Javier García-Serrano Institut Català de Ciències del Clima Université Pierre et Marie Curie
  • Francisco Doblas-Reyes Institut Català de Ciències del Clima Université Pierre et Marie Curie
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_FITE.2013.v25.43436
Keywords: West African monsoon, seasonal prediction, operational forecast systems

Abstract

In this paper we review the main modes of variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall as predicted by three operational forecast systems: the ECMWF System 4 (S4), NCEP CFSv2 (CFSv2), and the Météo-France System 3 (MF3). A new methodology to assess the interannual variations of the WAM rainfall is considered, where monthly rainfall is averaged zonally over 10ºW-10ºE before estimating the two leading modes of WAM rainfall variability. It is found that S4 is skilful when predicting the two leading modes of WAM rainfall variability, MF3 is skilful when predicting the Guinean regime, and CFSv2 has no skill when predicting the Guinean regime and low correlation when predicting the Sahelian regime.

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Published
2013-11-22
How to Cite
Lage Rodrigues L. R., García-Serrano J. y Doblas-Reyes F. (2013). Seasonal prediction of the intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon precipitation. Física de la Tierra, 25, 73-87. https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_FITE.2013.v25.43436
Issue
Vol. 25 (2013): Climate variability and teleconnections in West Africa and the Mediterranean
Section
Articles

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