The fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria: Local, regional and global factors

Abstract

This article explores the factors that led to the collapse of the Asad dynasty regime in Syria by the end of 2024. Using a historical-structural and geopolitical approach, it examines the local, regional, and global dynamics that influenced the course of the conflict since the protests of 2011. The study highlights how the interaction of these factors, including internal changes, the withdrawal of support from key international actors, and the growing strength of opposing forces, contributed to the regime's downfall. Additionally, the evolution of armed groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is analyzed, along with how their relationship with external sponsors accelerated the collapse. The transformation of international and regional alliances, which shaped policies of support and resistance to the regime, is also considered. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of the end of half a century of dictatorship in Syria, emphasizing the need to understand how the interactions between different levels were crucial in destabilizing the regime's power.