Desarrollo de un modelo epidemiológico para la evaluación de la difusión de la peste porcina clásica en Segovia
Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop an epidemiological model to analyze the spread patterns of the classical swine fever virus in Segovia and to assess the areas and farm types with more epidemiological risk. The model used was a state-transition stochastic and spatial model. As a result it was obtained a mean (95% IP) of 28 (1-98) infected farms, 15 (0-70) depopulated and 71 (2-279) quarantined farms in the protection zone. The average duration of the epidemic was 63 (1-168) days and the average time to detection was 14 (6-39) days. The areas at higher risk of spread of CSF in Segovia were identified in the central-western region. This study could be useful for decision making regarding the prevention and control of potential epidemics of Classical Swine Fever.Downloads
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