The electoral behaviour of Basque Nationalist Party voters. Evolution of the voting components in the period 1994-2020

Abstract

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) has become one of the main points of reference in regional politics over the last forty years. This paper analyses the factors that have influenced the electoral behaviour of its voters in Basque regional elections, from 1994 to elections in 2020. Following in the footsteps of most studies on Basque electoral behaviour, the nationalist and ideological dimensions will be taken as a reference, but extending the focus beyond them. In this sense, three specific objectives are set out: a) to study the PNV’s location in both dimensions, according to the self-location of its voters; b) to analyse the perceived distance of its electorate towards the party itself on both axes using spatial models; and c) to carry out an analysis of the voting components by means of logistic regressions, paying attention to other types of variables. With regard to the third and main section, the results will show the importance of factors related to these two axes, as opposed to other types of socio-demographic or thematic variables. However, elements of a more affective nature, which until now have not received special attention, such as leadership or party identification, will prove to be highly significant in defining the electoral behaviour of voters.