Predictability in Natural Risk Management: An Epistemological Approach

Abstract

This paper tries to show the difficulties of being able to provide adequate and accurate prediction for decision-making in the field of natural hazard management. From the geographical point of view, we try to make a description of the process, of the physical and human environment, and predictions will remain in the realm of statistics.Being able to understand when, how and where can occur a change in dynamic environments becomes the first problem that the risk and disaster experts must undertake. The systems move, interact, appear and disappear, but they are governed by natural and physical laws that we must be able to understand and to implement in any geographical work that requires a real approach to the processes of decision-making to avoid as far as possible the losses of life and property.