Relaciones entre la variabilidad climática y la productividad de trigo en España

Abstract

In this paper, the relationships between annual wheat productivity and climate variability in Spain are obtained. The preliminary results indicate that wheat production is most sensitive to climate variations of May, the association is found to be positive with precipitation and negative with maximum temperature. The effect of these climate elements were represented by a circulation index that account for the weather type «Golfo de Cádiz» which is favorable for wheat productivity. Empirical orthogonal functions, correlation and composite analyses were the methods used to filter signals of observed climate variations and to relate them to the wheat productivity. We have used the following climatic elements: maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, geopotential height and wind. The potential applications of this study are to downscale agricultural productions from the expected weather regimes which could be predicted by using dynamical or statistical methods.