El Algoritmo See5 versus la metodología Rough Set. Una aplicación a la predicción de la insolvencia en empresas Españolas de seguros no-vida

Abstract

Prediction of insurance companies insolvency has arisen as an important problem in the field of financial research, in order to protect both society and customers and minimize the costs associated with this issue. In this paper we intend to examine the suitability of a method coming from the field of the Artificial Intelligence to the prediction of insolvency among Spanish non-life insurance companies, the See5 algorithm, taking a group of financial ratios as a starting point. Furthermore a comparative study of the performance of this technique and the Rough Set methodology is carried out. The methods that will be examined fall into the well-known area of Machine Learning and they present the advantage of being easy to implement as well as providing results of simple interpretation whilst avoiding some of the drawbacks of the conventional statistical techniques.