La estrategia yihadista en Afganistán

Abstract

2008 was the bloodiest year since the ousting of the Taliban regime in 2001. Weakness of the Afghan government, its corruption and lack of effectiveness, financing through thriving drogue trafficking, the existence of a secure sanctuary in the Tribal Zones of Pakistan along the border of Afghanistan (FATA), lack of an international military presence strong enough and the Taliban alliance with Al- Qaeda are elements that compound the current situation and explain the powerful surge of the Taliban. The three fronts were the Taliban threat concentrates are: Weakening of the political power in Kabul, attacks against the foreign troops, trying to involve as many “collateral” civilian casualties as possible as to foster opposition from the population and reinforcement of their sanctuary in Pakistan, in particular making use of its location to disrupt supplies to Afghanistan. The challenge will be to split the Taliban movement and attract its moderate and more venous supporters, to gather support against them from antagonistic tribes and to avoid any success of the Islamist strategy, as put into practice with the bombings in Mumbai, distracting Pakistani efforts of anti-terrorist repression in the Taliban/Al-Qaeda stronghold in the FATA by creating tensions with India.