Energy Security in the Maghreb Facing the New European Energy Strategy and the Eastern Mediterranean - Middle East

Abstract

The conflict in Ukraine was the trigger for a revision of the European Union´s energy policy; the main goal was to reduce dependence on Gazprom´s natural gas. Gas producers in the Maghreb region, such as Algeria and Libya, might receive this as good news. However, could diversification towards new partners in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East free new resourses that might compite with natural gas produced in the Maghreb? The EU is at disatvantage in the competition, as it faces both the internal demand in the West Mediterranean and Middle East regions and other world consumers´ demand. It is thus unlikely that natural gas from these regions displaces Maghreb gas producers from the EU market in the coming future. Only Qatar represents a serious potential competitor. However, this country does not seem ready to lift its moratorium on natural gas production. On the other hand, while the EU does not seek to diversify its imports of oil, the oil market´s evolution, determined by decisions taken by the main producers from the Middle East, does have a serious impact on the Maghreb: OPEC´s policy maintains prices low, damaging thus the public finances of Algeria and Libya.