From Disengagement to Regional Opium War? Towards a Counter-Narcotics Surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Abstract

The security transition process in Afghanistan (2011-2014) will in many ways be a game changer for the international community’s role in the country. As foreign troops are pulled out, many security and counter-insurgency related resources and infrastructure will disappear. Having less foreign boots on the ground is likely to decrease the commitment and investment of the international community in the broader development process of Afghanistan, especially as countries are faced with budget cuts and other political priorities at home. This could spell disaster for international support to Afghanistan’s counter-narcotics policy, which partly relies on military infrastructure. Without the military footprint of the international community, it is also likely that there will be less political clout as well as limited donor spending to increase the impact of Afghanistan’s counter-narcotics policy. This will especially affect Pakistan, which has a history of poppy cultivation and currently accounts for about 40 percent of the volume of drugs, trafficked out of Afghanistan. Without a strong increase in civilian counter-narcotics efforts in the region – a much needed counter-narcotics surge to prevent international disengagement – a turf war for control over the illegal opium industry could break out in the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan following a disruption of the illegal opium economy’s power structure after 2014.