The The Portuguese paradox: high trust in the news and the perils of social media disinformation in elections

Abstract

. Portugal's political landscape is usually regarded by scholars as resilient to disinformation, largely due to its population’s high trust in news. However, this resilience is increasingly challenged by rising political polarisation and a growing reliance on digital platforms for news consumption. This study examines how these dynamics interact, questioning Portugal’s reputation in resisting the influence of disinformation.

Employing a mixed-methods approach, we triangulate quantitative data from the Digital News Report with a qualitative analysis of social media posts by the leader of Chega, a radical right-wing party. Findings reveal that individuals who primarily rely on social media for news display distinct sociodemographic characteristics —they tend to be younger, less educated, and more politically undecided—, making them more vulnerable to disinformation. As the shift toward social media coincides with declining trust in news and less worry about disinformation among these groups, populist parties, such as Chega, exploit these vulnerabilities by leveraging social media to extend their reach and legitimacy.

The analysis of Chega's social media tactics, such as the use of news-style aesthetics and polling data manipulation, reveals a recognition of news as a source of political credibility. The findings suggest that Portugal’s resilience to disinformation is being eroded by structural changes in the media environment, and that high public trust in news must be matched by institutional responses and rising media literacy to prevent potential backfire effects at a societal level.