Transnistria: origins, evolution, consequences and future scenarios of a de facto state

Abstract

This article analyzes a model of conflict in the former Soviet space whose origin is located in the final period of the Soviet Union. The prolongation of the independent Republic of Moldova during the state building process —with a war conflict in 1992— as well as the absence of a definitive resolution from the political-diplomatic point of view and the multiple support given by Russia to the enclave secessionist ended with its conversion into a de facto State. It is not an isolated phenomenon in this vast geopolitical area, which Russia has made its essential sphere of interest. However, it presents certain particularities that reach the construction, consolidation or destruction of ethnic national identities —including the majority in the new State— without forgetting the nature of the conflict itself. The consequences derived from Russia´s continued aggression against Ukraine since 2014 can lead to unpredictable scenarios around Transnistria: from the expansion of the Kremlin´s territorial objectives to the final unblocking of the conflict towards any possible scenario, in a regional context of extreme insecurity.